New Hampshire Results - Statistics on How Independents Voted

This is not a partisan diary – just some stats from last night’s primary.

I was going over the New Hampshire results and wanted to see how the numbers broke down among Democrats and Republicans based on partisan and independent voters.  Based on exit polling, between 42 and 44 percent of those who voted in the Democratic primary were independents, and between 34 and 37 percent of those who voted in the Republican primary were independents.  The numbers above have a range as they differ depending on whether one looks at "vote by party ID" or "vote by party registration".  I wanted to look at both sets of numbers, and found them here at CNN:  http://www.cnn.com/...

You can also get the 100% actual results here: http://politics.nytimes.com/...  If you scroll down, they have county maps.  Does anyone have a link to map results by town, btw; I saw one earlier today where you could click on each town & it gave you the results, but have yet to see one where each town is color-plotted by winner on a map of the state (I believe that Dave Leip may provide such a map in the near-future on his Atlas: http://uselectionatlas.org/...

It looks like 287,322 people voted in the Democratic primary and 238,548 people voted in the Republican primary.  As we know, independents (who make up approximately 40% of all New Hampshire voters) had the choice to vote in either primary.  More voted in the Democratic primary than in the Republican one.

I crunched the numbers (averaging the numbers from "vote by party ID" and "vote by party registration"; the ranges are provided in parentheses; I skipped candidates averaging 1.4% or less of the vote in their respective primaries) and this is what I got:

Democrats for Clinton – 67,032 (64,245-69,819)
Democrats for Obama – 50,281 (47,810-52,752)
Democrats for Edwards – 25,112 (24,825-25,399)
Democrats for Richardson – 5,316 (4,655-5,976)

Republicans for McCain – 51,658 (49,475-53,840)
Republicans for Romney – 49,475 (48,020-50,930)
Republicans for Huckabee – 17,439 (16,007-18,870)
Republicans for Giuliani – 13,824 (13,096-14,551)
Republicans for Paul – 7,892 (7,052-8,731)

Independents for Clinton – 40,111 (39,191-41,030)
Independents for Obama – 50,052 (48,270-51,833)
Independents for Edwards – 22,239 (21,722-22,756)
Independents for Richardson – 6,810 (6,034-7,585)

Independents for McCain – 33,063 (30,820-35,305)
Independents for Romney – 24,082 (23,831-24,332)
Independents for Huckabee – 8,004 (7,897-8,111)
Independents for Giuliani – 5,487 (5,296-5,677)
Independents for Paul – 9,681 (8,111-11,250)

Highest numerical "subgroups" among all voters (20,000 voters or above; average):
Democrats for Clinton – 67,032
Republicans for McCain – 51,658
Democrats for Obama – 50,281
Independents for Obama – 50,052
Republicans for Romney – 49,475
Independents for Clinton – 40,111
Independents for McCain – 33,063
Democrats for Edwards – 25,112
Independents for Romney – 24,082
Independents for Edwards – 22,239

Among Independents only (average):
Obama – 50,052
Clinton – 40,111
McCain – 33,063
Romney – 24,082
Edwards – 22,239
Paul – 9,681
Huckabee – 8,004
Richardson – 6,810
Giuliani – 5,487

You can come to your own conclusions from the above numbers.  A few things jump out at me (some may be obvious, others counter-intuitive).  The most interesting, perhaps, is that more independents voted for Clinton than for McCain.

•  This Is A Basic And Perhaps Stupid Question...

  ...as far as stat heads are concerned (I'm not one myself, I'm afraid), but, without making this comment at all an attempt to snipe, I really do wonder why Clinton does SO much better with registered Democrats than does her competition.

  by dyrrachium on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 07:30:41 PM PDT

  •  Obama beat her amongst Dems in IA

    But she cleaned his clock in NH.

    Dems would have the best impression of the 90s Clinton years.  I think that's a big part of it.

    by bawbie on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 07:52:13 PM PDT

    •  Yes, by 1% ... or did he?

      Could have been by as little as 1 vote on the entrance poll, with HRC's 31.48 rounded down, and BHO's 31.52 rounded up.

      (Of course the margin of error is 3 or 4 percent, even if the entrance poll sample was ideal.)

      by RonK Seattle on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 08:15:04 PM PDT

  •  because she's a real democrat.

    her policy positions are those of the building blocks of the democratic party - labor, lower income, gays, women. if you support the party's platform and core values, the party will support you.

    don't tell obama.

    by campskunk on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 10:43:21 PM PDT

•  Any way you slice it...

  Huckabee is kicking Giuliani's ass.

  by blueteam on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 07:32:49 PM PDT

•  When are exit polls released?

  Back in 2000, the exit polls were released prior to the official outcome was declared.  Now it seems that I don't see the exit poll data until the next day.  

  by Mr Bofothum on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 08:00:31 PM PDT

•  fascinating

  Fascinating data.  That's amazing that Hillary Clinton thrashed McCain among independents.  I haven't seen too many mainstream media pieces analyzing how New Hampshire independents just ADORE Hillary Clinton!

  by markw on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 10:23:59 PM PDT

•  This is great! Thanks.

  I'm going to save this. I can't believe more people didn't respond.

  by SignalSuzie on Thu Jan 10, 2008 at 05:30:44 PM PDT