Not Ignoring the Numbers: How Obama is Outperforming Clinton in GE Matchups

(cross-posted from MyDD)

In a diary from last night, Jerome Armstrong on MyDD posted a set of polls which purported to show how badly Obama is supposedly doing in selected states:
http://www.mydd.com/...

But looking at all the recent state polls shows a far different picture.  In this diary, I want to discuss all the latest polling for swing states, and do so from the perspective of how the Rev. Wright controversy may be affecting these polls.

First, the states Jerome highlited in his diary (I don’t feel Alabama or Kentucky will be swing states in this election, but including anyhow):

Arkansas (Rasmussen)

http://rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama 30
McCain 59

Clinton 43
McCain 50

Both Democrats are losing to McCain.  The Hillary loss is especially noteworthy, as this is supposed to be one of the states Hillary is most likely to flip to our side if she is the nominee.

Alabama (SUSA)

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 35
McCain 62

Clinton 38
McCain 56

Not sure why we’re even including Alabama in this lineup, as McCain leads both Democrats by double digits and no Democratic Presidential nominee will win here in November.

Missouri (SUSA)

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 39
McCain 53

Clinton 46
McCain 48

This is one state where Hillary seems to have an advantage, though according to this poll, she was still slightly behind McCain.  It should be noted however that this poll was conducted on March 14-16, immediately after the Wright controversy exploded, but before Obama’s big speech on the matter.

UPDATE:
Rasmussen released a Missouri poll yesterday in which both Democrats are significantly behind McCain:
http://rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama 38
McCain 53

Clinton 41
McCain 50

Kentucky (SUSA)

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 28
McCain 64

Clinton 43
McCain 53

See Alabama above.

Ohio (SUSA)

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 43
McCain 50

Clinton 50
McCain 44

See Missouri above; Ohio is second state where, apparently due to Wright controversy, Obama’s numbers were negatively affected.  Again, let’s see how the numbers look once more recent polls come out; this one was conducted right after the Wright matter exploded, but before Obama’s speech.

North Carolina (Rasmussn)

http://rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama 42
McCain 51

Clinton 34
McCain 50

McCain leads Clinton by significantly bigger margin than the margin he has over Obama.

Now, how about discussing all the other latest swing state polling:

Colorado (Rasmussen)

http://rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama 46
McCain 46

Clinton 38
McCain 52

Poll conducted after the Wright controversy exploded, but before Obama’s big speech on the matter.  Nevertheless, Obama still seems to have 14 point advantage over Clinton.

Connecticut (Quinnipiac)

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...
Obama 52
McCain 35

Clinton 45
McCain 42

This poll was just released today; was conducted wholly after Obama’s speech on the Wright issue.  Interestingly, the results mirror those of a poll Rasmussen conducted prior to the Wright controversy erupting, where Obama led McCain 50 to 38, while Clinton led McCain by only 47 to 44. According to the Quinnipaic poll, independent voters support Obama 45 - 38 percent over McCain; when Clinton faces McCain, independent voters go to the Republican 48 - 36 percent.  Voters under 45 years old back Obama 63 - 30 percent over McCain; Obama wins a huge 73 percent of voters under 35 years old when facing McCain.

California (Public Policy Institute of Calif.)

http://www.ppic.org/...
Obama 49
McCain 40

Clinton 46
McCain 43

Poll conducted over one week time span – from pre-Wright, through the date of Obama’s speech.
Normally, wouldn’t consider California a swing state, but with Hillary’s numbers, who knows ?

Florida (Rasmussen)

http://rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama 43
McCain 47

Clinton 40
McCain 47

Poll conducted immediately prior to the Wright controversy.  Not sure how the controversy has affected these numbers, but at least pre-Wright Clinton did not seem to have any sort of advantage here over Obama in how they performed against McCain (despite the conventional wisdom).

Iowa (SUSA)

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 50
McCain 44

Clinton 44
McCain 48

Poll conducted immediately after the Wright controversy exploded, but before Obama’s big speech on the matter.  Nevertheless, Obama still has 10 point advantage over Hillary in terms of performance against McCain.

Minnesota (Rasmussen)

http://rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama 47
McCain 43

Clinton 46
McCain 47

Poll conducted after Obama’s speech on Wright.  According to the poll, "Obama leads McCain by fourteen points among unaffiliated voters while McCain leads Clinton by nine among those same voters."

Nevada (Rasmussen)

http://rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama 45
McCain 41

Clinton 44
McCain 43

Poll conducted after Obama’s speech.

New Hampshire (Rasmussen)

http://rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama 43
McCain 46

Clinton 41
McCain 47

Like Colorado above, conducted right after the Wright explosion, but before Obama’s speech.  Obama still does better than Clinton.

Oregon (Rasmussen)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama 48
McCain 42

Clinton 40
McCain 46

Another poll released just today, with "post-Wright controversy" numbers.  Obama viewed favorably by 60%; McCain by 51%; Clinton by 46%.

Virginia (SUSA)

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 48
McCain 47

Clinton 47
McCain 47

Conducted right after the Wright explosion, but before Obama’s speech.  Obama still does marginally better than Clinton.

Washington (SUSA)

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 52
McCain 41

Clinton 50
McCain 45

Poll conducted immediately after the Wright controversy exploded, but before Obama’s big speech on the matter.  Nevertheless, Obama still led McCain by bigger margin than Clinton.

Wisconsin (SUSA)

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 48
McCain 44

Clinton 46
McCain 45

Same as Washington above.

Summary of Results

Bottom line here is this:

Number of state polls here to digest, some conducted just as the Wright controversy was exploding; some after Obama’s speech on the controversy was delivered.

Out of all the states polled here, Clinton performs better than Obama when facing McCain in the following states: Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri and Ohio –- although out of all of these, she manages to be outright winning only in Ohio.

Obama performs better than Hillary in the following states: Colorado, Connecticut, California, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oregon, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin –- and he is currently behind McCain in only 3 of these, while Hillary is losing in 7.

•  NIce analysis--thanks

  for the correction to Jerome's BS over at MYDD. I saw that last night and thought to myself, why isn't he reporting ALL the results?

  He ought to have the sense to be more transparent. He's losing credibility that's not going to be easy to gain back.

  by DelicateMonster on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 10:23:46 AM PDT

  •  The only thing

    not clear to me is what is his motivation? Is he a Clinton shill? Does he just not like Obama? Because there's no point in talking about him like he's fair or rational. Just assume he's biased toward Clinton--it will make you less likely to tear your hair out.

    by JMS on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 10:48:07 AM PDT

•  What, no cherry picking? No

  use of only polls that support your candidate?

  What's wrong with you?  Didn't you get the spin memo?  You gotta ignore the ones that don't go your way.

  Reality has a bias, I think.

  by Prof Dave on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 10:26:09 AM PDT

  •  This diarist will never make it . . .

    . . . on MyDD.  

    Note that the diary in which this is in response to didn't even have the guts to print the Hillary vs. McCain numbers, but instead said said that we could go and look at them on our own.

    Good for the diarist that they did just that.

    by dbratl on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 10:34:24 AM PDT

•  Add Illinois

  If Hillary is the nominee, we would lose Illinois. I find it ironic but Obama would carry New York but Hillary can't carry Illinois. He negatives are way down.

  by wisconsin girl on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 10:26:23 AM PDT

•  Electability

  Electability is a Clinton talking point only because it is so up in the air.
  You can see the numbers from the primaries. Obama wins in votes, delegates, and states.
  You can imagine almost anything in your picture of the general election. So, you can make claims about electability.
  The same thing with the emphasis on superdelegates. they are split almost evenly; but many of them are up in the air and the rest can change. So, it shows a possibility of a Clinton win.

  by Frank Palmer on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 10:27:29 AM PDT

  •  Its hard to call yourself more electable . . .

    . . . when you keep losing more elections.

    by dbratl on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 10:35:06 AM PDT

•  Good diary and summary . . .

  Interesting about Ct.  

  You think of that as almost as true blue at this point as New York, MA, or RI.  Shocking to see McCain with a lead over any Democrat there.

  by dbratl on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 10:32:49 AM PDT

•  Jerome is an intellectually dishonest hack

  And I stand by that.

  by NMLib on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 10:32:49 AM PDT

•  Clinton supporters are delusional

  I don't know how they can even argue about electability when she has such a high negative rating...

  by rdxtion on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 10:35:59 AM PDT

•  Eh

  There is no bottom line to these numbers. You can analyze in any number of various ways. For Obama, it's concerning that he's losing big in Missouri and Ohio and promising that he's doing well in Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Virginia.

  Clinton has pluses and minuses too.

  This is spin, just like Jerome's piece.

  by david mizner on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 10:38:42 AM PDT

  •  And it's so early on still.

    Truth is, the numbers will change again.  And perhaps even again after that!

    by Land of Enchantment on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 01:41:09 PM PDT

•  Great diary.

  Folks may want to go recommend your cross-post.

  (You can also add the link to to your cross-post mention at the top of your diary.)

  by Bob Johnson on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 10:41:18 AM PDT

•  SUSA also did a CA poll during

  the Wright controversy, but before the speech, which had Obama +14, and I think Clinton +18. What was interesting about Obama's numbers is they actually were up from the previous pre-Wright poll(He led by 11). If Hillary is in fact doing worse than Obama in CA now(the PPIC polls suggests it, but it's only one poll), it might be a result of the Bosnia story I think.

  by jj32 on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 10:42:31 AM PDT

•  Thanks for the research - tip jar?

  by Wee Mama on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 10:46:37 AM PDT

•  Good job

  When the Dems consolidate on Obama and the media turns its attention toward McCain, he should rise in all these states.

  by Katman on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 10:48:50 AM PDT

•  MyDD was dishonest in not including side by side

  comparisons.  Excellent analysis

  by ecostar on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 10:53:48 AM PDT

•  hope you cross-posted on MyDD

  needs to be read there.

  by djs on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 11:21:58 AM PDT

•  Clinton can't win Iowa unless she pays campaign

  bills incurred there.  Last I checked she still hadn't paid off bills to several Iowa vendors. Probably other states are requiring money up front.

  by Leftovers on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 11:44:00 AM PDT