First, the states Jerome highlited in his diary (I don’t feel Alabama or Kentucky will be swing states in this election, but including anyhow):
Arkansas (Rasmussen)
http://rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama 30
McCain 59
Clinton 43
McCain 50
Both Democrats are losing to McCain. The Hillary loss is especially noteworthy, as this is supposed to be one of the states Hillary is most likely to flip to our side if she is the nominee.
Alabama (SUSA)
http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 35
McCain 62
Clinton 38
McCain 56
Not sure why we’re even including Alabama in this lineup, as McCain leads both Democrats by double digits and no Democratic Presidential nominee will win here in November.
Missouri (SUSA)
http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 39
McCain 53
Clinton 46
McCain 48
This is one state where Hillary seems to have an advantage, though according to this poll, she was still slightly behind McCain. It should be noted however that this poll was conducted on March 14-16, immediately after the Wright controversy exploded, but before Obama’s big speech on the matter.
UPDATE:
Rasmussen released a Missouri poll yesterday in which both Democrats are significantly behind McCain:
http://rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama 38
McCain 53
Clinton 41
McCain 50
Kentucky (SUSA)
http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 28
McCain 64
Clinton 43
McCain 53
See Alabama above.
Ohio (SUSA)
http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 43
McCain 50
Clinton 50
McCain 44
See Missouri above; Ohio is second state where, apparently due to Wright controversy, Obama’s numbers were negatively affected. Again, let’s see how the numbers look once more recent polls come out; this one was conducted right after the Wright matter exploded, but before Obama’s speech.
North Carolina (Rasmussn)
http://rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama 42
McCain 51
Clinton 34
McCain 50
McCain leads Clinton by significantly bigger margin than the margin he has over Obama.
Now, how about discussing all the other latest swing state polling:
Colorado (Rasmussen)
http://rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama 46
McCain 46
Clinton 38
McCain 52
Poll conducted after the Wright controversy exploded, but before Obama’s big speech on the matter. Nevertheless, Obama still seems to have 14 point advantage over Clinton.
Connecticut (Quinnipiac)
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...
Obama 52
McCain 35
Clinton 45
McCain 42
This poll was just released today; was conducted wholly after Obama’s speech on the Wright issue. Interestingly, the results mirror those of a poll Rasmussen conducted prior to the Wright controversy erupting, where Obama led McCain 50 to 38, while Clinton led McCain by only 47 to 44. According to the Quinnipaic poll, independent voters support Obama 45 - 38 percent over McCain; when Clinton faces McCain, independent voters go to the Republican 48 - 36 percent. Voters under 45 years old back Obama 63 - 30 percent over McCain; Obama wins a huge 73 percent of voters under 35 years old when facing McCain.
California (Public Policy Institute of Calif.)
http://www.ppic.org/...
Obama 49
McCain 40
Clinton 46
McCain 43
Poll conducted over one week time span – from pre-Wright, through the date of Obama’s speech.
Normally, wouldn’t consider California a swing state, but with Hillary’s numbers, who knows ?
Florida (Rasmussen)
http://rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama 43
McCain 47
Clinton 40
McCain 47
Poll conducted immediately prior to the Wright controversy. Not sure how the controversy has affected these numbers, but at least pre-Wright Clinton did not seem to have any sort of advantage here over Obama in how they performed against McCain (despite the conventional wisdom).
Iowa (SUSA)
http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 50
McCain 44
Clinton 44
McCain 48
Poll conducted immediately after the Wright controversy exploded, but before Obama’s big speech on the matter. Nevertheless, Obama still has 10 point advantage over Hillary in terms of performance against McCain.
Minnesota (Rasmussen)
http://rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama 47
McCain 43
Clinton 46
McCain 47
Poll conducted after Obama’s speech on Wright. According to the poll, "Obama leads McCain by fourteen points among unaffiliated voters while McCain leads Clinton by nine among those same voters."
Nevada (Rasmussen)
http://rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama 45
McCain 41
Clinton 44
McCain 43
Poll conducted after Obama’s speech.
New Hampshire (Rasmussen)
http://rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama 43
McCain 46
Clinton 41
McCain 47
Like Colorado above, conducted right after the Wright explosion, but before Obama’s speech. Obama still does better than Clinton.
Oregon (Rasmussen)
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama 48
McCain 42
Clinton 40
McCain 46
Another poll released just today, with "post-Wright controversy" numbers. Obama viewed favorably by 60%; McCain by 51%; Clinton by 46%.
Virginia (SUSA)
http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 48
McCain 47
Clinton 47
McCain 47
Conducted right after the Wright explosion, but before Obama’s speech. Obama still does marginally better than Clinton.
Washington (SUSA)
http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 52
McCain 41
Clinton 50
McCain 45
Poll conducted immediately after the Wright controversy exploded, but before Obama’s big speech on the matter. Nevertheless, Obama still led McCain by bigger margin than Clinton.
Wisconsin (SUSA)
http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 48
McCain 44
Clinton 46
McCain 45
Same as Washington above.
Summary of Results
Bottom line here is this:
Number of state polls here to digest, some conducted just as the Wright controversy was exploding; some after Obama’s speech on the controversy was delivered.
Out of all the states polled here, Clinton performs better than Obama when facing McCain in the following states: Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri and Ohio –- although out of all of these, she manages to be outright winning only in Ohio.
Obama performs better than Hillary in the following states: Colorado, Connecticut, California, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oregon, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin –- and he is currently behind McCain in only 3 of these, while Hillary is losing in 7.
