Obama Beats Hillary 303 EV to 224 EV in General Election Matchups (with MAPS)

Several days ago Survey USA released their 50-state polling matching Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton against John McCain.  Their polling indicated that currently Obama would receive 280 electoral votes while Hillary would receive 276.  While SUSA is by far my favorite pollster because of  their relative accuracy, I went ahead and examined results from other state polls available.  In addition to the 50 state polls SUSA released, another 37 state polls were conducted recently.  I look at data from these polls – including all polls from the last 30 days only (all polls included are therefore done beginning at least two days after the Feb. 5 "Super-Tuesday".)  

In this diary I have included data for ALL of the current state polls available – the data from the SUSA 50 has been averaged (when applicable) with the other 37 available polls to help us obtain an even more accurate picture of where things stand.  You will notice that for virtually every swing state, at least two polls are available.  For several states, more than two are available (three for Iowa, New Jersey, Oregon, Texas, Wisconsin; four for Florida and Ohio; and five for Pennsylvania).  All the data used and links are at the bottom of the diary.

When data from all 87 available state polls from the last 30 days is examined, we can see that Barack Obama currently performs significantly better than Hillary Clinton in general election matchups with John McCain.  According to this analysis, Obama currently beats McCain by 303 EV to 235 EV while Clinton only gets 224 EV to McCain’s 297 EV (with Michigan tied).  The only states that Clinton carries but Obama does not carry are Arkansas and West Virginia.  On the other hand, the following ten states are ones which Obama carries (in many cases comfortably) but which Hillary loses:

Colorado (average of 2 polls):
Obama 48 – McCain 40
Clinton 38.5 – McCain 48.5

Iowa (average of 3 polls):
Obama 49  – McCain 39.3
Clinton  39.3 – McCain 47.3

Minnesota (average of 2 polls):
Obama 51 – McCain 40
Clinton  44.5 – McCain 45

Nevada (average of 2 polls):
Obama  48 – McCain 39.5
Clinton 40.5 – McCain 49

New Hampshire (average of 2 polls):
Obama 47.5  – McCain 40
Clinton  42 – McCain 45

New Mexico (average of 2 polls):
Obama  47 – McCain 43.5
Clinton 42.5 – McCain 48.5

North Dakota (1 poll available):
Obama 46  – McCain 42
Clinton  35 – McCain 54

Oregon (average of 3 polls):
Obama 48  – McCain 39.7
Clinton  41 – McCain 46.3

Washington (average of 2 polls):
Obama  48 – McCain 41.5
Clinton  42– McCain 47

Wisconsin (average of 3 polls):
Obama  46.7 – McCain 42.3
Clinton 43  – McCain 47.3

Additionally, in the case of Michigan (average of 2 polls), Obama wins against McCain while Hillary ties the Arizona Senator, while in the case of Nebraska (1 poll available), Clinton loses big, while Obama earns 2 out of 5 electoral votes due to that state’s unique system of proportional (by Congressional district) electoral vote allocation.

Another significant difference when looking at the average of all 87 available state polls (versus just looking at the SUSA 50) is that Obama does not lose New Jersey and Pennsylvania to McCain.  In fact, the average of 5 available Pennsylvania polls shows that Obama performs slightly better than Hillary when matched against McCain in the Keystone State.  (It should also be noted that Obama does marginally better against McCain than Hillary does in the state of Ohio, according to an average of the 4 available polls from that state).  Last, but not least, is the fact that, according to an average of 4 available state polls, both Democrats lose Florida to John McCain; the Sunshine State may be a tough nut to crack no matter who our nominee is.

One last thought is that, when looking at a map of the most competitive Senate races, we can see that out of the 12 states in that category, Obama performs better than Hillary in the general in 10 of them (Alaska, Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oregon, South Dakota and Virginia) while Hillary does better in only 2 (Louisiana and Mississippi).  In many cases, the difference between how Obama does against McCain and how Hillary does may be the deciding factor in the Senate race.  Obama simply may have much greater coattails.  The difference in some of these states is amazing -- in particular: Alaska -- Obama performs 17 points better than Clinton, Colorado (Obama better by 18 points), Minnesota (11.5 points), Nebraska (24 points), New Hampshire (10.5 points) and Oregon (13.7 points).

Alabama:

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 40 – McCain 54
Clinton 41 – McCain 51

Alaska:

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 43 – McCain 48
Clinton 34 – McCain 56

Arizona:

http://www.tucsoncitizen.com/...
Obama 38 – McCain 49
Clinton 33 – McCain 57

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 39 – McCain 51
Clinton 39 – McCain 54

Arizona average:
Obama 38.5 – McCain 50
Clinton 36 – McCain 55.5

Arkansas:

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 33 – McCain 53
Clinton 51 – McCain 40

California:

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 51 – McCain 40
Clinton 50 – McCain 40

Colorado:

http://rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama 46 – McCain 39
Clinton 35 – McCain 49

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 50 – McCain 41
Clinton 42 – McCain 48

Colorado average:
Obama 48 – McCain 40
Clinton 38.5 – McCain 48.5

Connecticut:

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 55 – McCain 34
Clinton 50 – McCain 40

Delaware:

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 50 – McCain 41
Clinton 46 – McCain 41

Florida:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...
Obama 39 – McCain 41
Clinton 42 – McCain 44

http://rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama 37 – McCain 53
Clinton 43 – McCain 49

http://www.wesh.com/...
Obama 37 – McCain 47
Clinton 40 – McCain 49

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 45 – McCain 47
Clinton 51 – McCain 42

Florida average:
Obama 39.5 – McCain 47
Clinton 44 – McCain 46

Georgia:

http://www.peachpundit.com/...
Obama 40 – McCain 48
Clinton 40 – McCain 47

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 41 – McCain 54
Clinton 35 – McCain 56

Georgia average:
Obama 40.5 – McCain 51
Clinton 37.5 – McCain 51.5

Hawaii:

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 61 – McCain 31
Clinton 43 – McCain 39

Idaho:

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 39 – McCain 52
Clinton 27 – McCain 63

Illinois:

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 60 – McCain 31
Clinton 48 – McCain 37

Indiana:

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 41 – McCain 50
Clinton 36 – McCain 53

Iowa:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama 44 – McCain 41
Clinton 37 – McCain 47

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/...
Obama 53 – McCain 36
Clinton 40 – McCain 49

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama  50 – McCain 41
Clinton 41 – McCain 46

Iowa average:
Obama 49  – McCain 39.3
Clinton  39.3 – McCain 47.3

Kansas:

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 41 – McCain 50
Clinton 42 – McCain 51

Kentucky:

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 33 – McCain 54
Clinton 41 – McCain 50

Louisiana:

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 39 – McCain 54
Clinton 41 – McCain 51

Maine:

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama  53 – McCain 39
Clinton 48 – McCain 42

Maryland:

http://garesearch.com/...
Obama 51 – McCain 37
Clinton 47 – McCain 40

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama  53 – McCain 40
Clinton  49 – McCain 40

Maryland average:
Obama  52 – McCain 38.5
Clinton  48 – McCain 40

Massachusetts:

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 49 – McCain 42
Clinton 55 – McCain 37

Michigan:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama 47 – McCain 39
Clinton 44 – McCain 44

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 46 – McCain 45
Clinton 44 – McCain 44

Michigan average:
Obama  46.5 – McCain 42
Clinton  44 – McCain 44

Minnesota:

http://rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama 53 – McCain 38
Clinton 42 – McCain 47

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama  49 – McCain 42
Clinton  47 – McCain 43

Minnesota average:
Obama 51 – McCain 40
Clinton  44.5 – McCain 45

Mississippi:

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 41 – McCain 54
Clinton 42  – McCain 51

Missouri:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama 40 – McCain 42
Clinton 42 – McCain 43

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 42 – McCain 48
Clinton 44  – McCain 48

Missouri average:
Obama  41 – McCain 45
Clinton  43 – McCain 45.5

Montana:

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 39  – McCain 47
Clinton 33 – McCain 53

Nebraska:

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 42 – McCain 45
Clinton  30 – McCain 57

Nevada:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama 50 – McCain 38
Clinton 40 – McCain 49

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 46 – McCain 41
Clinton 41 – McCain 49

Nevada average:
Obama  48 – McCain 39.5
Clinton 40.5 – McCain 49

New Hampshire:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama 49 – McCain 36
Clinton 43 – McCain 41

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama  46 – McCain 44
Clinton 41 – McCain 49

New Hampshire average:
Obama 47.5  – McCain 40
Clinton  42 – McCain 45

New Jersey:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...
Obama 46 – McCain 39
Clinton 47 – McCain 41

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama 43 – McCain 45
Clinton 50 – McCain 39

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 43 – McCain 43
Clinton 47 – McCain 42

New Jersey average:
Obama 44  – McCain 42.3
Clinton 48 – McCain 40.7

New Mexico:

http://rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama 44 – McCain 44
Clinton 38 – McCain 50

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 50 – McCain 43
Clinton 47 – McCain 47

New Mexico average:
Obama  47 – McCain 43.5
Clinton 42.5 – McCain 48.5

New York:

http://www.siena.edu/...
Obama 47 – McCain 40
Clinton 49 – McCain 42

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 52 – McCain 38
Clinton 55 – McCain 33

New York average:
Obama  49.5 – McCain 39
Clinton  52 – McCain  37.5

North Carolina:

http://www.jwpcivitasinstitute.org/...
Obama  36 – McCain 46
Clinton  36 – McCain 48

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama  45 – McCain 47
Clinton 41 – McCain 49

North Carolina average:
Obama 40.5 – McCain 46.5
Clinton  38.5 – McCain 48.5

North Dakota:

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 46  – McCain 42
Clinton  35 – McCain 54

Ohio:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama 41 – McCain 42
Clinton 43 – McCain 46

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...
Obama 40 – McCain 42
Clinton 43 – McCain 44

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/...
Obama 48 – McCain 47
Clinton 47 – McCain 51

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 50 – McCain 40
Clinton 50 – McCain 40

Ohio average:
Obama 44.75 – McCain 42.75
Clinton 45.75 – McCain 45.25

Oklahoma:

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 34  – McCain 57
Clinton 42 – McCain 50

Oregon:

http://blog.oregonlive.com/...
Obama  46 – McCain 38
Clinton 38  – McCain 46

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama 49 – McCain 40
Clinton 42 – McCain 45

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama  49 – McCain 41
Clinton  43 – McCain 48

Oregon average:
Obama 48  – McCain 39.7
Clinton  41 – McCain 46.3

Pennsylvania:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...
Obama 42 – McCain 40
Clinton 44 – McCain 42

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama 49 – McCain 39
Clinton 42 – McCain 44

http://www.presidentelectionpolls.co...
(Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Poll)
Obama 39 – McCain 42
Clinton 42 – McCain 41

http://www.wgal.com/...
Obama 43 – McCain 44
Clinton 46 – McCain 46

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 42 – McCain 47
Clinton 47 – McCain 46

Pennsylvania average:
Obama  43 – McCain 42.4
Clinton  44.2 – McCain 43.8

Rhode Island:

http://www.insidepolitics.org/...
Obama 42 – McCain 30
Clinton 43 – McCain 32

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama  53 – McCain 38
Clinton  54 – McCain 37

Rhode Island average:
Obama 47.5  – McCain 34
Clinton  48.5  – McCain 34.5

South Carolina:

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 45  – McCain  48
Clinton  42 – McCain 48

South Dakota:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama  38 – McCain 48
Clinton 38 – McCain 50

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama  43 – McCain 47
Clinton  40 – McCain 52

South Dakota average:
Obama 40.5 – McCain 47.5
Clinton  39 – McCain 51

Tennessee:

http://www.mtsusurveygroup.org/...
Obama 37 – McCain 53
Clinton 41 – McCain 45

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama  38 – McCain 54
Clinton  46 – McCain 46

Tennesse average:
Obama 37.5 – McCain 53.5
Clinton 43.5 – McCain 45.5

Texas:

http://www.cnn.com/...
Obama 44 – McCain 52
Clinton 42 – McCain 55

http://www.beloblog.com/...
Obama 42 – McCain 49
Clinton 46 – McCain 50

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama  46 – McCain 47
Clinton  42 – McCain 49

Texas average:
Obama 44 – McCain 49.3
Clinton 43.3 – McCain 51.3

Utah:

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama  39 – McCain 50
Clinton  27 – McCain 65

Vermont:

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama  63 – McCain 29
Clinton  49 – McCain 39

Virginia:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama 44 – McCain 49
Clinton 41 – McCain 51

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama  47 – McCain 47
Clinton 40 – McCain 50

Virginia average:
Obama 45.5  – McCain 48
Clinton  40.5 – McCain 50.5

Washington:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama 44 – McCain 45
Clinton 40 – McCain 48

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 52  – McCain 38
Clinton  44 – McCain 46

Washington average:
Obama  48 – McCain 41.5
Clinton  42– McCain 47

West Virginia:

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama  35 – McCain 53
Clinton 47  – McCain 42

Wisconsin:

http://rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama 44 – McCain 43
Clinton  38 – McCain 50

http://www.presidentelectionpolls.co...
(Strategic Vision)
Obama  45 – McCain 44
Clinton 43 – McCain 48

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama 51  – McCain 40
Clinton  48 – McCain 44

Wisconsin average:
Obama  46.7 – McCain 42.3
Clinton 43  – McCain 47.3

Wyoming:

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Obama  35 – McCain 54
Clinton  28 – McCain 61