We are in the process of selecting the next President of the United States, the "Leader of the Free World", a man who will guide this country through some very difficult times, not a drinking buddy.  So stop asking who we'd rather have a beer with.  That's an insultingly stupid question.  It cheapens the discourse.

But that's not the stupid polling question that's been bothering me this election cycle.  No.  The stupid question that I wish the pollsters would stop asking is any version of the following:

Is America ready for a (fill in the blank) president?

There has been a lot of hand wringing, and a few I told you so's about Obama's latest poll numbers and the apparent tightening of the race. Everybody is wondering why, in what would appear to be a very favorable year for the Democrats is it tight at all. Bush's favorably ratings are at around 30%, an unpopular war, high oil  prices and a rotten economy. I mean this should be a cake walk, right?

Well maybe not. Let's face it, the Republican's may have lucked into the  the best candidate to go up against us. McCain's got a 20 year brand as a "maverick" some one who goes against the grain of the the standard Republican. I'm not speaking to the truth of this brand, but the perception and there is a big difference between reality and perception. Perception tends to win in the short term until folks start paying attention. And right now I don't think the majority of the electorate is paying attention.

Next are we really expecting to much. Gallup has an interesting read on this:

We're all a little bit edgy since McCain started climbing in the polls.  Bloggers here and elsewhere have been fishing around for an explanation--things like, "Obama's too wimpy," or, "He shouldn't have gone bodysurfing," or "He threw his base under the bus."

I have a completely different explanation, and it doesn't mean drinking Koolaid or lame excluses like Obama taking the high road or keeping his powder dry.  It's based on two principles:  (1) correlation does not equal causation, and (2) McCain's climb in the polls was inevitable and would have happened no matter what Obama did.  If you like this faintly mavericky challenge to Left Blogistan's conventional wisdom, read on.  

    Rasmussen released new Ohio results today showing McCain up 5 in the state. While this represents an improvement since the last Rasmussen Ohio poll which had McCain up with a 10 point margin, it's hardly cause for celebration.

    For one thing, the last Rasmussen poll had been dismissed in DKOS punditry circles as an outlier. It's much harder to dismiss this one, coming on the heels of a (D-leaning) PPP poll that shows the race dead even in Ohio. More disturbing, virtually all the polling shows that Obama is doing significantly worse in Ohio than in the comparable states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and even Michigan. Ohio is trending with Indiana, which is not where we want it to be.

   I did predict this -- consult my numerous diaries. I come not to gloat but to reinforce the message that fundamental changes need to be made in the Ohio campaign, and we are running out of time.

Conservatives are finally voting for the candidate they're being told to! A single Zogby poll has been released! The primaries aren't even over yet, and we're already doomed! DOOOOOMED!

Seriously, people. Breathe into a paper bag or something. All this hand wringing is not only unnecessary, it's completely counterproductive.

Up. Down. Swing Around. Poll Dancing Explained.

Obama's in trouble. Registered voters are now switching to McCain. Will he be back up by Friday?

Or will he drop again?

If you're like me and you follow the daily tracking pulls such as the Gallup and the Rassmussen poll, you're likely to get confused. How is it that people change their minds so often? I know that despite my candidate's missteps I don't change my mind...unless of course it's revealed that he slept with his videographer or something.

With a round of new polling out last night and this morning, I could sense a concern day coming on.  And, typically, that means that there will be the equally pithy responses that boil down to "sleep it off" "let me know when it's over" "stop whining".  But concern days are not necessarily a bad thing.  Ridiculous concerns ("He's too black" "He's not black enough!") can be quickly dismissed out of hand.  Voter based concerns, these are issue concerns, are legitimate and have to be considered in how we think about why they have become a concern and what best addresses those issues.

Today, a continuation of a short series looking into the factors affecting the current political climate.  It's no secret that the country isn't too happy about the economy, the war in Iraq, and the direction the country is headed in.  But for me at least, I like to see the data.  First, the right track/wrong track question:

Click to enlarge.

The trend is clear, the numbers are huge: almost three quarters say we're off on the wrong track.  Much more below.

Yesterday I wrote a diary criticizing Obama for doing exactly what Dukakis, Gore, and Kerry did after getting the presumptive nomination.  They all made a sharp right turn after getting the nomination and they all blew double digit leads.  Clinton won because he was always a centrist and had the advantage of running in an election in which Ross Perot took lots of votes away from Bush I.  

As we stand on the eve of the real election season, two new national polls today (LA Times/Bloomberg and Q-poll) along with the daily trackers (Rasmussen and Gallup) continue to show a tight race with a small Obama lead.

LA Times/Bloomberg
Registered Voters (June) MoE +/- 3
Obama  45 (49)
McCain 43 (37)

This poll shows the most movement, with the last polling in June.

The latest Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll shows that Obama, the first black major-party nominee, may have defused the issue of race, particularly among independents who will form a crucial voting bloc in the November election...

The deteriorating economy and rising energy costs "have been major issues for so long and voters blame the Republicans and George Bush for the problems," says Susan Pinkus, the Los Angeles Times polling director. Still, Pinkus says, McCain has benefited from voters' concerns about Obama's experience and ability to handle an international crisis.

Note that when this poll had Obama up by 12 in June, it was dismissed as an outlier along with the equally volatile Newsweek poll. Today's numbers are consistent what other polls show (see rest of post.) According to the news article, Obama still benefits from increased D enthusiasm. The LA Times version speculates on McCain negative attacks because Obama's fav/unfav now resemble McCain's. OTOH,

The poll found that McCain, long an unpopular figure among conservatives, has had more success than Obama in rallying his party's base. Nine out of 10 Republicans favor McCain, while just under 8 in 10 Democrats support Obama.

But independents, who could wind up deciding the election, favor Obama, 47% to 36%.

And Obama's backers are more enthusiastic than McCain's, suggesting that the Democrat holds greater potential for a strong turnout of supporters. The poll found that 78% of Obama's supporters were enthusiastic about his candidacy; 61% of McCain's backers felt that way.

Bottom line is that, like in other polls, the GOP base has consolidated while the Dem base, while more enthusiastic, has not. Obama has room to move up, but it'll take work to get there. And then there are the conventions, which, based on these numbers, come at the right time for Obama. How much upward room there is for McCain remains unclear, based on what is a poor showing amongst indies (Obama favored by 11) and the stated 9 in 10 GOP voters picking McCain. In all the polls, base support is a major difference between the candidates, though I haven't seen the cross-tabs or the exact figures (or the party ID numbers, for that matter.) But if indies favor Obama by that much, he's in decent shape.

Quinnipiac
Likely Voters  (July) MoE +/- 2.5

Obama   47  (50)
McCain  42  (37)

Notes:

In the presidential matchup, McCain leads 46 - 41 percent among men, up from 47 - 44 percent July 15, and 48 - 40 percent among white voters, compared to 49 - 42 percent last month. He also leads 65 - 25 percent among white Evangelical Christians, up from 61 - 29 percent.

But Obama leads 53 - 39 percent among women, compared to 55 - 36 percent last month, and 94 - 4 percent among black voters. The Democrat leads 55 - 36 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, compared to 63 - 31 percent last month. Obama's strength among voters 35 to 54 is up from 48 - 44 percent to 49 - 41 percent. McCain leads 47 - 40 percent among voters over 55, compared to a 45 - 44 percent split July 15.

Independent voters shift from a 44 - 44 percent split to a 45 - 39 percent Democratic tilt.

"The poll underlines Sen. Barack Obama's strengths and weaknesses. Strengths: He leads overall and he's strong with women, even stronger among young folks and astronomically strong with blacks. Weaknesses: Sen. John McCain beats him among white voters, men, older folks and white Catholics," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Also, theGallup tracker has Obama 45 and McCain 44 (RV) while Rasmussen has Obama 47, McCain 45 (LV, with leaners).

With the VP choices and conventions about to start, the polls reflect the state of the race as of now. As of now, Obama as a tightening but small lead. And as of now is about to change. Maybe McCain will figure out how to get above 44% (or, for a change, lead.) Maybe Obama will finish consolidating wavering Dems and shore up his standing with the senior set.

We shall see in the next two weeks. Since polling over Labor Day is tough, the first helpful polls will be right after that. But if you want to look at historical VP bounces while you await the VP choices, try this recent post by Mark Blumenthal.

There has been alot written in the recent past about the tightening of the polls.  Then we hear about the 80,000 expected to hear Sen. Obama's speech versus the small numbers that show up for McCain.  Obama gets $51 million versus $27 million for McCain.  Two million new donors for Obama and some new fancy "bundlers" for McCain.

What gives?

There's a little thing that wins Presidential campaigns that unfortunately has been missing from that of one Barack Obama - it's called FIGHTING.  It can be base.  It can be immature at times.  But in the back of the electorate's mind it is often a necessary component when it comes to picking  their President, and, as usual, we have not been doing enough of it nor doing it in an effective manner.  

We tend to be a bit obsessive about polls here (the title being the headline of Greg Sargent's posting at TPM today).  We also tend to want to offer advice to our candidate and his campaign, although many would say just sit back and relax; let the pros handle it.
 
On the first point, polls (with their inherent flaws and limitations) are feedback and feedback tells you something about how you're doing at a moment in time.  So I do believe you need to pay attention to them and try to read the tea leaves underneath the top line numbers.  We may see white noise or we may see cause and effect - at least a little - in play here with this latest report on the state of play in the race.

On the second point, where many would say just sit back and relax - good advice, thank you.  However, I also post on the Miami Dolphins sports pages blog just what a mess the offensive (or defensive) coaches made of their supposed "game plan" that Sunday - so in the spirit of true Monday Morning Quarterback-itis, I will have to take a pass on sitting back and relaxing.

Fortunately my boss is out today--I'm at work and finding it all but impossible to concentrate.

The talk that the running mate may be annnounced today is very distracting. I do really wish the Obama campaign would make the announcement. There are some people whose name I definitely would not want to hear, but let's get it over with already!

Then I read on politicalwire that the LA Times/Bloomberg will be releasing a new poll today. As you can see here it sounds ominous for Obama. This poll did show him with a 12 point lead last time, 15 points when third parties are included, so some decline was inevitable. Still this wording is not comforting:

Cross-posted from DMIBlog

Today the Drum Major Institute (DMI -- where I'm director of research) released its first annual Survey on the Middle Class and Public Policy.  The nationwide poll, conducted by Global Strategy Group, aimed to learn how those Americans who see themselves as middle class (the vast majority of us, it turns out) think about the direction of the country, public policy ideas that could improve the nation, and their relationship with their own elected representatives. What we found were middle-class households filled with "fearful families": Americans worried about the present, pessimistic about the future, but not nearly so divided on issues of public policy as the typical media reports of a country divided by red and blue might lead us to believe. In fact, there’s broad bipartisan support for a range of progressive policies.

It's been quite a while since I crunched some political numbers, so I thought I'd check back in with a series of diaries.  Today, the latest edition of the Bush approval map.

Click to enlarge.

My, that's pretty!

Memo to Democrats:  this is an anvil for the falling Republicans.  Please use it.

The following parody news story appeared seven years ago today. It was published and distributed by Yossarian Universal News Service (YU), the world’s first satiric news syndicate founded in 1980.

YU News Dispatch 037
Yossarian Universal News Service 081801
3:01:30:05 PM PST
START

WORLDWIDE POLL SHOWS MANY BELIEVE BUSH TO BE MISSING GREY MATTER
Pretend President Disputes Data And Tries To Cut Down Giant Sequoia With Plastic Spoon

Paris (YU) --A new joint survey released today, conducted by the International Herald Tribune and Yossarian Universal News Service, found that a majority of the world's citizens who were polled earlier
this month regarding their opinion of Presidential Pretender George W. Bush, overwhelmingly chose the word "lunkhead" when asked to pick a word that best described him.
        The survey of about 1,000 people in each country is the first of its kind to measure the attitudes of the international community toward an American leader.

Somebody named Cokie Roberts is wondering out loud on TV whether Hawaii is too elite for a vacation spot. This does bring up a legitimate question. Is Cokie Roberts an imbecile? Or is she just pandering to morons? In either event, drivel is the result.

However, it really isn't a bad marketing strategy.