If Christina Hartman wins the race for PA-16 this November it will be the ultimate Red to Blue win. No Democrat has EVER represented Lancaster and most of surrounding Lancaster County in the U.S. House of Representatives.
I went through the entire set of districts that Lancaster has been part of since the 1828 election below, PA-4, PA-8, PA-9, PA-10 and PA-16. Some representatives’ names appear twice, as the district number and/or party affiliation of the member changed:
1829-1831 PA-4* James Buchanan, Jacksonian
George Leiper, Jacksonian
Joshua Evans, Jacksonian
1831-1833 PA-4* William Hiester, Anti-Masonic
David Potts, Anti-Masonic
Joshua Evans, Jacksonian
1833-1837 PA-4* William Hiester, Anti-Masonic
David Potts, Anti-Masonic
Edward Darlington, Anti-Masonic
1837-1839 PA-4* Edward Davies, Anti-Masonic
David Potts, Anti-Masonic
Edward Darlington, Anti-Masonic
1839-1841 PA-4* Edward Davies, Anti-Masonic
Francis James, Anti-Masonic
John Edwards, Anti-Masonic
1841-1843 PA-4* Jeremiah Brown, Whig
Francis James, Whig
John Edwards, Whig
* part of 3-member district
1843-1845 PA-8 Jeremiah Brown, Whig
1845-1849 PA-8 John Strohm, Whig
1849-1853 PA-8 Thaddeus Stevens, Whig
1853-1855 PA-9 Isaac Hiester, Whig
1855-1857 PA-9 Anthony Roberts, Opposition
1857-1859 PA-9 Anthony Roberts, Republican
1859-1868 PA-9 Thaddeus Stevens, Republican
1868-1873 PA-9 Oliver Dickey, Republican
1873-1885 PA-9 A. Herr Smith, Republican
1885-1889 PA-9 John Hiestand, Republican
1889-1901 PA-10 Marriott Brosius, Republican
1901-1903 PA-10 Henry Cassel, Republican
1903-1909 PA-9 Henry Cassel, Republican
1909-1923 PA-9 William Griest, Republican
1923-1929 PA-10 William Griest, Republican
1930-1945 PA-10 J. Roland Kinzer, Republican
1945-1947 PA-9 J. Roland Kinzer, Republican
1947-1966 PA-9 Paul Dague, Republican
1967-1977 PA-16 Edwin Eshleman, Republican
1977-1997 PA-16 Robert Walker, Republican
1997-present PA-16 Joseph Pitts, Republican
As you can see, around 1830 Lancaster was part of a 3-member district that also included a good chunk of southern Pennsylvania, and did have “Jacksonian” representatives, a precursor of the modern Democratic Party. In his political evolution, James Buchanan himself went from “Federalist” to “Jacksonian Federalist” to “Jacksonian” and in 1834 was elected to the U.S. Senate as a “Democrat”. Later, a single-member Lancaster-based district was created; its first representative was a Whig, and the list of all subsequent representatives for this district, to the present day, does not include a single Democrat.
[In the meantime, all or most of Chester Co. alternated between either being a part of the same district as Lancaster or constituting its own congressional district; regardless, the last Democrat elected in the Chester Co. part was in 1858, when Chester Co. was its own district. It should also be noted that in the 1980’s, a small rural portion of northeastern Lancaster Co. was part of a Berks Co.-based district that was represented by a Democrat (see link www.highbeam.com/... ). The current Berks Co. part of the district has historically voted Democratic, but it forms less than 20% of PA-16’s population, while the Lancaster and Chester Co. parts, are over 80% of PA-16.]
This political history is sort of crazy because Lancaster has been around a long time, and even served as capital of the United States for one day in 1777. I wonder if perhaps President Buchanan’s ineptitude and Thaddeus Stevens’ anti-slavery fervor soured this area on Democrats for generations to come?
The entire area is now strongly trending Democratic, more than any other district in Pennsylvania, when you look at the last 15 years -- scroll through the maps in this link: www.nationalreview.com/... ... yes, I know it’s from the right-wing National Review but it’s nevertheless informative, especially the map “% Swing 2000-2012”. The seat is historically very Republican, but there’s nothing really preventing it from turning our way under the right conditions. During the 2013 government shutdown, some polling was done here and the district was indeed deemed just as competitive as other swing districts: www.dailykos.com/...
Anyhow, just wanted to share this little piece of political history and hope that Christina Hartman will be the next U.S. Representative for PA-16.