One thing that really caught my eye last night was the New York Times map of PA-18 precinct shifts -- the map with the little arrows which, in virtually every case, shifted blue:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/13/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html
I thought strange ... and wonderful!
Wonderful, of course, if you're a Democrat … but ominous if you're a Republican.
Ominous for the GOP because PA-18 is really like two types of Congressional districts in one. There are two very different types of demographics here. In both cases, these have been very Republican voters as of late …
Yet, last night, among both demographic groups, there was a significant shift to the left.
The map below shows the two types of voters here; you will need to zoom in to the Pittsburgh area ...
http://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/2012-16-Presidential-Swing-by-Precinct.png
On the one hand, you have the traditionally Republican, relatively upper-income, highly-educated suburban voters like those in southwestern Allegheny County. That area is colored mostly blue on this map – meaning that Hillary performed better there in 2016 than Obama did in 2012. Yet, last night, that area moved even further in the Democratic direction.
On the other hand, you have the blue collar, steel and coal country voters (historically union and Democratic, but steadily moving towards the GOP over the last few decades) … the quintessential Trump voters, if you will. That area is colored mostly red on this map – meaning that Hillary performed worse there in 2016 than Obama did in 2012. This is perhaps best represented by Greene County in the southwestern corner of the state. Obama lost Greene Co. by 18 points in 2012; Hillary lost it by 40 points in 2016. Yet, last night, this area too moved in the Democratic direction.
All this happened while the economy is doing almost as good as can be possible. Trump came into this Republican district multiple times. The GOP outspent Democrats significantly here (counting party money as well as outside group spending on behalf of the two candidates). Yet, apparently all this to no avail. The GOP did worse among BOTH the upscale voters of suburban Pittsburgh AND the blue-collar “Trump Country” voters in the rest of the district. Bottom line … Trump and the GOP are politically in some deep doo-doo ...
Lastly, I wanted to share just a few sets of numbers that speak for themselves:
Trump’s margin in Pennsylvania in 2016:
44,292
Trump’s margin in PA-18 in 2016:
72,397
Conor Lamb’s margin last night (may change slightly based on absentees):
641
Difference between Democratic win last night and Democratic Presidential loss in district in 2016 (and, please remember, this is just one district out of 18 in the state):
73,038